Trump Rising Unemployment Not making America Great Again -- Peter Schiff

2017 Economic Collapse -- Rising Unemployment Is Just The Excuse The Fed's Been Waiting For













Peter Schiff is a well-known commentator appearing regularly on CNBC, TechTicker and FoxNews. He is often referred to as "Doctor Doom" because of his bearish outlook on the economy and the U.S. Dollar in particular. Peter was one of the first from within the professional investment field to call the housing market a bubble. Peter has written a book called "Crash Proof" and a follow-on called "The Little Book of Bull Moves in Bear Markets". He is the President of EuroPacific Capital, which is a brokerage specializing in finding dividend-yielding, value-based foreign stocks.











The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free investigative journalists , researchers , Whistelblowers , truthers and many more

Trump's Most Chilling Tweet Has Elites Panicking

Once Trump gets rid of Section 8, the SNAP program, and the W.I.C. Program, then these harpies will humble themselves! Stop rewarding women for being Feminists Whores, having babies to gain wealth! They are draining this country of its wealth, so they can feign Independence from men, through us having to pay more taxes! Unless they learn how to submit to men, and become a wife, only intact families should be able to receive these programs, not lose, lazy women having babies out of control.











remember last Monday when the Attorney 0:15 General the trumpet appointed refused to 0:18 follow his orders you know her lawyers 0:20 admitted and she admitted that it was 0:21 constitutional 0:22 it was just a repeat of Obama's orders 0:24 from three years previous just expanded 0:27 to more countries CNN said the monday 0:31 night massacre 0:33 ok and now CNN it's Donald Trump's most 0:38 bone-chilling tweet and i thought i'm 0:42 going to see this 0:43 so I go to his most bone-chilling tweet 0:45 and he comes out and says you know this 0:53 so-called judge exact closer the opinion 0:59 of this so-called judge which 1:01 essentially takes law enforcement away 1:03 from our country is ridiculous and it 1:05 will be overruled now in another tweet 1:08 he SAT there and said that man this is 1:12 you know really chilling in a dangerous 1:14 time when our country can't even have 1:18 control of its borders and this is very 1:21 dangerous and then they took that and 1:23 said always threatening the judge 1:24 they're acting like presidents never 1:26 criticize federal judges when several 1:28 presidents had federal judges arrested 1:30 like Abraham Lincoln now I'm not saying 1:33 you should do that those were judges 1:34 organizing sedition against the quote 1:37 Republic you can argue whether that was 1:39 right or wrong but it's 50 times what 1:42 Trump's doing but see I'm curse of being 1:43 informed on history presidents are 1:46 constantly criticizing judges they don't 1:48 agree with in much stronger terms like 1:51 dog Don is most chilling tweet and he's 1:54 like this so called judge this is gonna 1:57 be overturned you know why in the very 2:00 same front page of CNN up above all to 2:02 the article minute 2:03 it says oh Obama is Trump security 2:07 blanket 2:08 he spent all these years criticizing 2:10 Obama but now he's actually using his 2:16 executive words in laws he got passed in 2:18 2013 to enforce this 2:21 so she is a suspension of logic here's 2:24 an article saying that it's Karen E and 2:28 an article under thing 2:29 oh he's using Obama's laws see obama's 2:31 not bad and the articles are right 2:34 beside each other this is what I'm 2:37 talking about 2:38 it's such a monday night massacre it's 2:41 the your ladies and gentlemen it's 2:43 getting so much worse what are we going 2:45 to do 2:46 it's it's it's it's it's his most you're 2:48 dangerous shocking tweet total 2:52 suspension of reality there's a bunch of 2:54 Muslim countries in trouble with the 2:55 shot as well they are banning the same 2:57 countries nobody lets Somalis education 3:00 unless they're completely insane at the 3:02 United States takes him 70 plus four sho 3:04 of Somalis ok I mean Somalis and kill 3:08 each other for a thousand years it's a 3:09 little help where women are sold on 3:11 Slate blocks that Somalis someone want 3:13 to come here to have freedom that's 3:15 great but the ones that child post up 3:16 with machetes you know that's 3:17 complications so think about this 3:20 Obama passes the law put in place but 3:25 doesn't ever fully implemented Trump 3:27 does and they act like it's hysterical 3:28 that a sovereign nation could be able to 3:32 even control its own borders this is the 3:33 essence of globalism and in globalism 3:36 it's the West open up bringing all these 3:38 people and he's going to have any 3:39 controls as they're organized into a 3:41 political force against you it's been 3:43 declared that you're horrible evil and 3:44 and monstrous and must be destroyed 3:46 there's only three things the president 3:49 supposed to really do and that is to 3:52 send the borders and execute the laws 3:55 that he / when Congress passes and a 3:58 deal of disputes and to basically defend 4:01 the nation and a break vetoes you know 4:04 to to break ties in the Congress but the 4:07 globalist have built up the presidency 4:09 to transfer power so that they can 4:11 bypass the separation of powers also 4:13 love CNN so much irony I've been i go 4:15 there because the irony and it has this 4:17 headline Trump just ran into the 4:19 separation of powers are you liking the 4:22 Constitution there bud 4:23 no the TPP just ran the separation of 4:26 powers 10 years in its secret 4:29 negotiation transferring our sovereignty 4:31 to private corporations a total 4:33 corporate takeover 4:34 open world government by the Davos /bold 4:36 Bergeron and all of x-men expose all 4:39 that's out in the open 4:40 you know what else just ran in the 4:41 separation hours the global is just 4:43 making they can ignore the laws of this 4:45 country and even outside of law order 4:47 the southern border completely open and 4:49 let people in with tuberculosis and even 4:52 leprosy and then not even treat them so 4:54 be sure the Statue of Liberty statue of 4:56 liberty created by Freemasons artist 4:59 obviously in France this but this was 5:03 more feminine but the original is a man 5:06 in drag it is a a sexual creature and is 5:13 actually something that other countries 5:14 rejected they wanted to put in denial 5:17 but the Muslims wouldn't take it so you 5:20 might want to look at that and it is a 5:22 very ominous Jacobi symbol of of 5:27 basically attempt to take over the new 5:29 atlantis see there there's the goddess 5:31 columbia ladies and gentlemen that boy 5:35 that's a woman 5:37 ok this this is a blank Jacqueline 5:40 Illuminati because this is mainline 5:42 history by the way I mean you have to 5:44 read 45 pages into it but it's there 5:47 ok that's why the hands are so big feet 5:49 are so big though that's a female 5:51 version 5:52 ok so they finished retired students all 5:55 the other stuff 5:56 no don't send us a bunch of people to be 5:57 organized by multinational corporations 5:59 to a paramilitary political force to run 6:02 around burning things down if you're not 6:03 given free goodies 6:05 that's all this is that's what globalism 6:06 is and it's the conquering of the 6:09 nation-state and from brings it to the 6:11 United States all the world people are 6:13 pulling out of world government and work 6:14 through our state government taking our 6:17 country back by the UN is directly 6:18 reaching out to city governments now 6:21 underutilization try to bypass the state 6:23 government but city governments have no 6:25 power except under their state charters 6:27 through the counties and then down to 6:29 the cities cities are the weakest 6:31 political union in the country but they 6:34 got ass backwards with the cities and 6:36 absorbing the counties and they're 6:37 getting rid of shares since it's it's a 6:39 disaster right here in travis county 6:42 sheriff doesn't fall off tues I don't 6:44 care of you DW i don't care of your 6:45 arsonist we're not supporting you 6:47 whoa i mean i-i mean no real quotes man 6:50 this is sedition 6:52 ok so that the the treatment is going on 6:55 at that absolutely every level and again 7:00 i'm cursed with knowledge with actually 7:02 knowing the facts about all this and an 7:05 interesting was feeling on to just come 7:07 out with these tweaks and say this is 7:09 ridiculous this will be overturned his 7:10 so-called judge appointed by George W 7:12 Bush you want to open more global shined 7:15 the global programs like North American 7:18 Union installed in secret for years even 7:22 get the agreement out from waco texas 7:23 remember all that with the Century Fox 7:26 Paul Martin oh I guess a lot of new 7:28 viewers that are left us that left me 7:29 you don't remember all those names are 7:31 all those real people are all those 7:32 documents you do you don't work 18 hours 7:34 they actually being a real 7:35 constitutional its liberal no no you 7:38 just run around fake intellectual 7:40 something smart you are let me show you 7:42 some incredible contradictions here 7:44 ok show you some of the incredible 7:46 contradictions from CNN Michelle keeps 7:54 pulling out of seeing it 7:55 Oh truck just got checked in Malibu 7:59 ok I'm like his attorney general refuse 8:01 to follow his order and he kicked her 8:03 out 8:03 this is the executive branch ok and the 8:07 executives over the dam borders and we 8:09 have laws from Congress saying we 8:11 control who comes in like undated 8:13 tamales and people from sedan that other 8:16 Muslim countries won't even take Saudi 8:18 Arabia didn't take one refugee because 8:20 they were unvented from a war-torn 8:21 country and a bunch of Islamists from 8:23 the world invaded their to take it over 8:25 to get free land that's what the jihadis 8:27 do the saudi arabians have invaded Syria 8:30 three times last hundred years 8:31 Lewis from just got second balance all 8:34 suspension travel engines president his 8:36 first exposure to limits of his power 8:39 oh you mean some judge oversteps his 8:40 power couple rips federal judge Schumer 8:43 already block you 8:45 here's what could happen X opinion 8:46 trumps focus on the wrong threat 8:48 here's the key how Trump is using Obama 8:51 is a security blanket shrimp is like 8:54 fully saying i'm using his law he did 8:57 for countries i'm doing sick 9:00 he bombed four of the six i have even 9:04 been that I'm you're not betting they've 9:08 got all these fake passports 9:10 this is coming out this has been 9:11 reported and you're supposedly bad if 9:15 you're then informed and you know about 9:16 that 9:17 ok so so this is an incredible time to 9:20 be alive function i'm just going to 9:22 narrate some of your we see this 9:23 beautiful planet capital on you got a 9:26 microphone 9:27 well start walking back the second now 9:29 it's time to start walking back you know 9:31 it's just crazy how is also so many 9:36 people really well here we can see 9:38 whatever to make them trouble following 9:39 probably man that's right I'm just gonna 9:42 say this in closing people get fooled by 9:45 the system about the corporate media and 9:48 they think they know what they're doing 9:49 they think they understand what happened 9:50 we're not informed i make myself a very 9:52 very slowly because listen I know our 9:54 general issues are 14 min I am and you 9:56 knows i'm talking to people to do count 9:57 just because they're dumb down and 9:59 fooled still have to reach out to them 10:02 and hopefully you'll get them when 10:03 they're not in a totally composition i'm 10:06 sure the audience front of him taking 10:07 off cool 10:13 what I'm getting at here is their facts 10:18 are stubborn things 10:19 and the truth is there's a corporate 10:21 world government being formed and the 10:23 domesticated spoil rotten populations in 10:25 the West have no idea what they're even 10:28 dealing with or or what the operating 10:30 system of that technocracy is and what 10:32 the world government controllers say 10:34 they're going to do and and you've been 10:36 so busy denying any of this exists 10:37 because the mainstream media you make 10:39 jokes out of it but now even though she 10:40 openly announce your now supporting it 10:42 and your own slave but because that's 10:44 what you're told is the trendy cool 10:46 thing to do this this is the nature of 10:48 becoming a certain population and almost 10:51 every nation in the world has lost 10:53 almost all its sovereignty and that's 10:55 why would bring it the UK all of it 10:58 people are pulling out of this global 11:00 system because I'm this global system 11:01 you don't make the decisions you don't 11:03 run your life cold-blooded removed 11:06 multinationals do and again this is a 11:09 form of reverse colonization people 11:12 being used the reverse colonization are 11:14 not bad people but it is neocolonialism 11:17 the globalist are exploiting the third 11:19 world but also then using those 11:21 exploited masses to the flood the West 11:23 as political and economic cannon fodder 11:25 the big banks administer like Goldman 11:28 Sachs and JP Morgan the EBT cards the 11:30 whole system the social engineering and 11:32 create a giant client population that 11:34 they fully control population with no 11:37 identity other than worshiping the state 11:39 and worshipping the latest MSNBC 11:41 proclamation and then they can actually 11:44 sit there and talk about how Trump is a 11:46 fascist and like Hitler in mainstream 11:49 news it needs to be overthrown because 11:51 he wanted to defend our borders and a 11:53 milquetoast level not even that of 11:55 Canada 11:56 did you know in canada or libertarian 11:58 are right winger for anyone the world 12:00 they will not let you in or they will 12:02 grab you even if you're not a German 12:05 citizen and why you to Germany to be 12:09 held for your basic the rest of your 12:10 life in solitary confinement 12:12 oh yeah its liberal though oh you're 12:16 you're right winger who writes what 12:18 we're going to put yourself into Germany 12:20 liberal but she's a little sister was 12:23 your hotties and 12:24 I've sector find a candida when they're 12:26 just letting anybody in their passports 12:28 not looking just flooding flooding 12:30 flooding but if you're right you're 12:34 going to get screamed at you're going to 12:36 get shootout by white people because 12:39 they get there they are organizing a 12:41 permanent underclass of quote minorities 12:44 who will form a majority but not of one 12:47 racial or ethnic or regional group it's 12:49 the broken coalition strategy or 12:51 balkanization divided Congress and I 12:53 don't hammer on this incessantly ok I 12:56 understand that but the reason I do is 12:59 this is really what they're doing to you 13:00 okay and so I'm not against huge 13:03 populations coming in a few folks want 13:05 to work at people who want to adopt 13:06 americana melting pot but that social 13:11 contract that the global so people have 13:14 60 years of globalism to help the third 13:16 world and help us here as well as a 13:18 total front 13:19 look how their weaponizing all these 13:20 people everywhere you go just white 13:22 people being beaten up other white 13:23 people screaming if you like people 13:25 blogging women and then Robert Wright 13:28 goes on you know the garden gnome goes 13:30 on CNN and says oh it was it was right 13:32 wingers from people rioted Milo was you 13:34 had a flamethrower it was Milo having 13:37 firebombs from any I mean they're 13:39 practicing evil they're practicing lives 13:41 there practicing getting their minions 13:43 their cohorts to to fully commit to just 13:48 believe anything they say this is called 13:49 program where O'Brien torturing women in 13:53 1984 well have been involved torture 13:56 even the secret police in india had been 13:58 a communist been a OSS so he knew all 14:02 this that was allegory real stuff he was 14:05 involved into about it was once I don't 14:08 want you to believe whatever i say i 14:09 don't want you to have a mind what I 14:11 said what a 2+2 don't you see 468 2800 14:14 show you gravity is suspended i want you 14:18 truly believe what gravity is suspended 14:20 at the same time no it's not believe 14:22 both so you think that the propaganda is 14:24 really dumb down singing got rid of 14:26 Martin Luther King's bust in the white 14:27 house or you know there was no crowds 14:30 there and nobody was there and show you 14:32 a video for the gates 1st opened and 14:34 then say Trump's a liar 14:35 they're trying 14:37 to invert reality and get you to accept 14:38 it basically garbage in garbage out 14:40 computer cannot compute fire brain flyer 14:44 or your your logic systems like kids at 14:46 school have chips on their shoulders 14:48 their top 50 different sexual genders 14:50 its affiliated schools it is how you 14:53 suck the life force out of kids is you 14:56 you steal their innocence you totally 14:58 brainwashed and yes water system so evil 15:01 at the top it's a motley crew of 15:03 mercenaries exploiters control freaks 15:06 but but the main group is that and 15:11 that's a fact it comes out throughout 15:12 history 15:13 it keeps coming out over and everybody 15:14 sees they try to create fake story side 15:17 issues and incredibly strong man but 15:20 everybody knows about the Catholic 15:21 Church everybody knows they tried to 15:23 cover that episode of conspiracy theory 15:24 to and now you know best buddy 15:28 past and present you know for what you 15:30 know of course we know about all the 15:34 rest of the stuff that Penn State me 15:35 when we know about winter we told you 15:37 before was minus Z is being investigated 15:39 for child porn three months ago we had 15:43 NYPD sources on you say it's fair or 15:46 they gonna do with all that coming out 15:47 new york state at ABC NBC CNN Fox all 15:51 them go York Times Washington Post look 15:54 at this pizza place somebody on 4chan 15:55 mentioned it 15:56 that's where we think it's all run out 15:57 of I don't know but the place does look 15:59 weird weird art Devraj boyfriend it 16:02 actually goes there but no no no 16:05 well you're covering up to it was it 16:07 Pizza gate its pedophile gate and this 16:09 huge larger system we know the the last 16:12 Pope had to step down because of that 16:13 affiliate blackmail against the church 16:15 and the new pope is the operative openly 16:18 saying we must have world government I 16:20 mean this is serious crap folks you take 16:23 a look at Hilary Clinton 16:28 probably right back in one minute okay 16:30 thank you you you take a look at george 16:36 soros you take a look at these people 16:39 george soros Sean you look at hundreds 16:41 of photos I've got it 16:43 they they radiate like Sheila my god I 16:48 had nightmares about all the office they 16:52 aren't just and these are just the upper 16:55 echelon minions of the really dark 16:58 forces behind everybody knows their God 17:02 and you can see it in the facts and you 17:05 can see that trumps for real because he 17:08 delivered on everything that they hate 17:09 he's stopping their agenda is bringing 17:11 back national sovereignty he's trying to 17:13 get loans to small businesses to bring 17:15 back glass-steagall also called real 17:18 liberal should be falling down enjoy 17:20 this again infowars.com /o already 17:24 tomorrow for 6pm a big broadcast program 17:27 course 11 am-3 p.m. 17:30 subscribe our free podcast and find all 17:32 the links and videos 17:33 example.com /a show and just please keep 17:38 spread those legs because I'm Russian 17:39 everything is you know but you are too 17:42 were all in the firing line here we're 17:43 gonna lose everything we don't stand up 17:45 its not know you had Alex you'll be 17:47 alright you've gotta gotta be all and 17:51 that's what gives a security is a free 17:53 society we laid down let evil take over 17:55 the world and its really gotten arrogant 17:58 now trying to overthrow common sense in 17:59 reality but the forces of reality are 18:02 coming back and I don't care what color 18:04 you are or what gender you are or what 18:07 your sexual preferences or where you 18:09 come from the world either love liberty 18:11 and freedom you're welcome and i love 18:13 you I care about you but when you come 18:14 from a political cult-like radical 18:16 mainline orthodox islam lobby is on the 18:19 second over the world 18:20 you're clear present danger you can't go 18:22 to those countries folks even a muslimah 18:25 kill a lot of the time you understand 18:27 that we're not seeing videos everyday a 18:30 feminist chanting Allah Akbar and said 18:32 they want to be under sexual slavery and 18:34 they love islam because they hate 18:35 America and true loving male masculinity 18:38 so much they are so into the culture of 18:41 death 18:41 their abortions and I'm not saying 18:43 you're going to love it you know all 18:47 that stuff 18:48 this is satanic virtually she comes out 18:50 with the head doctors are really Sheamus 18:52 and they've got a lot of in Texas Kansas 18:56 all over I mean this is serious crap 18:58 folks remember the Communist Chinese 19:00 that killed tens of thousands of 19:01 different here and sell their organs 19:02 Buddhistic not doing yoga in their 19:05 houses are harvested a big deal shut up 19:09 white male you know it's like you like 19:11 Chinese everything's code wanting to 19:14 save the Chinese same chinese christians 19:16 buddhists save them save them 19:19 infowars.com /o is it isn't like spread 19:24 that like show everybody my last 19:25 transmission of the day but will be more 19:27 tomorrow the show you keep spread the 19:30 word we've got so many so many viewers 19:31 if you keep reaching out other people if 19:34 you start your own podcast your own 19:35 shows whatever you do it's going to 19:36 change the world were already changing 19:37 globalism that is being turned rabi 19:40 alladin going well just coming out here 19:44 and like I think you're providing a 19:47 great example of people every day coming 19:49 up with something to talk about that's 19:51 what we need to do because every day the 19:53 other side the mainstream media are 19:55 trying to come out with talking point on 19:57 the weekends when they really try to 19:58 strike two they go oh not a lot of rice 20:00 having their weekend they're enjoying 20:02 their time so this really is the time to 20:04 get out the weekend is a great time to 20:05 get that we exactly because of the 20:08 stories that come out sunday they'll 20:09 probably some big story that comes on 20:10 the superbowl that they're going to try 20:11 to get something good from did that i'll 20:13 try to bury with super bowl madness or 20:15 whatever so this is the time that you 20:18 have to get active don't you get a phone 20:20 and start talking into it that's all 20:21 we're using as a phone right here 20:22 talking into it and it's going out over 20:24 the web your ideas or what's going to 20:26 wake people up and and seriously this if 20:29 you were a trumpeter trunk shirt 20:30 watch your back around here especially 20:32 some of these events because people will 20:34 attack you with we've seen it time and 20:36 time again they are attacking people who 20:37 aren't even provoking they're just 20:39 trying to go to an event so really 20:41 writing to watch their back traveling 20:42 numbers and be prepared to defend 20:44 yourself because these anti-people 20:46 suddenly come out of the woodwork there 20:48 they have nice flag they'll have 20:49 matching leather jackets somebody's 20:52 funding them we know it Soros 20:54 and it's all people that are coming 20:56 after all 15 all 50 groups fighting the 20:59 Romans marched my sorrows exactly it's 21:01 called astroturf 21:02 yeah they make it look like it's it's a 21:05 you know if there's no money behind its 21:07 grassroots the people coming together 21:08 and it's not what's happening 21:10 these people are getting paid the 21:11 leaders are and of course they can find 21:13 you know underlings to follow them and 21:15 do whatever they want to do five people 21:17 who want to break stuff in and be you 21:19 know a little little baby terrorist of 21:21 course they're gonna find that we've got 21:22 baby comes around here this judge is 21:26 outside of bounds will be in this ruling 21:28 overturned right every time you hear 21:29 about a lawsuit or a court ruling says 21:31 all overturn this 21:32 oh my god it's dictatorship he wants to 21:35 overturn it like America hoping the 21:37 public comment doesn't know what this 21:39 ruling will be overturned that's what 21:41 it's called 21:42 god I'm sick of anything with Obama 21:44 people are surprised that trumps doing 21:45 so much is because Obama didn't do 21:47 anything he just SAT around waiting for 21:49 him to pass his lame horses right and 21:54 plus he didn't work at the pace that 21:56 trumps work he cut into the presidency 21:57 that is going to play basketball and 21:59 hang out and be a celebrity and that 22:01 without what the job is 22:02 they can't have it they can't have it 22:06 both ways were on the same page from 22:09 horrible his overstepped his mouth he's 22:10 in big trouble when all the real experts 22:12 freaking the launch standard probably 22:16 have all the time of places not being 22:17 vetted and then below it all look he's 22:20 using Obama's Lord Obama's good see 22:23 alright infowars.com for slideshow 22:25 please spread that length for a total 22:27 information war i don't want to lose 22:28 I appreciate you all thank you rob for 22:30 coming out today and get back to your 22:31 family my friends for compost won't be 22:35 able to see that site






The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free investigative journalists , researchers , Whistelblowers , truthers and many more

Harry Dent Outlines His Four Most Predicvtive Trends

Renowned Harvard Economist Harry Dent joined Peak Prosperity’s Chris Martenson to reveal his forecasts for the months ahead and discuss how cycle trends are leading us to the point of significant financial downturns. Harry outlines four of the most predictive trends and cycles he uses to forecast different markets and financial assets. Don’t miss Harry’s latest economic predictions for 2017 and on…











Transcript : welcome to crash concept where the 0:04 economy energy and the environment are 0:06 explored up next fresh ideas and 0:09 insights into the fasteners that are 0:10 driving the world is shaping your future 0:12 presenting information you can't afford 0:14 to live without 0:15 here's Chris Martenson welcome to this 0:17 peak prosperity podcast it's January 0:19 2016 2017 and i am your host Chris 0:23 Martenson now as i'm recording this the 0:26 u.s. stock markets are excitedly hitting 0:28 new all-time highs 0:30 the dow is just cracked the 20,000 mark 0:32 in the world equity markets are powering 0:35 to New 17-month highs looking at 0:37 all-time highs as well the narrative is 0:40 that this has something to do with Trump 0:43 although i cannot find anybody who can 0:46 explain to me why Europe's markets 0:48 should be anything but threatened by the 0:50 trade stances of Trump regardless that's 0:53 the narrative being used to explain all 0:55 these seemingly unstoppable stock market 0:58 advances 0:59 however as you already well no the 1:01 explanations put forth in the media to 1:03 explain things are nearly always an 1:06 accurate just plain misleading sometimes 1:08 or just wrong 1:09 my own favorite theory is the stock 1:11 markets are no longer divination 1:14 machines capable of discounting the 1:16 future but merely liquidity gauge is 1:18 telling us that the world's central 1:20 banks have overdone it again important 1:23 too much fuel into the furnace now to 1:26 really understand the probable future 1:29 you have to be rooted in the 1:30 fundamentals always always always and I 1:34 know that fundamentals are out of favor 1:36 right now but trust me they will come 1:39 roaring back they always do today I'm 1:42 very excited to have with us one of the 1:44 world's great economist yes some do 1:46 exist and a master of the fundamentals 1:49 carry dent Harry is the author of the 1:52 sale of a lifetime and editor of the 1:54 free newsletter economy and markets 1:56 which can be found at Harry dent dot-com 2:00 mr. debt has correctly called nearly 2:03 every major economic trend over the past 2:05 30 years including the 1991 recession 2:08 Japan's lost decade the 2001 tech crash 2:11 the bull market and housing boom 2:13 last decade and most recently the credit 2:16 in the housing bubble now he's saying 2:19 that US equities are going to quote 2:21 crash to a degree we haven't seen since 2:25 the Great Depression and quote he has 2:27 recently predicted a drop in the down to 2:29 6,000 and quote when the dust settles it 2:32 will eventually plummet to 3300 long the 2:36 wait will see another real estate 2:37 collapse 2:38 gold will sink to 750 dollars an ounce 2:41 and unemployment will skyrocket it's 2:43 going to get ugly and quote certainly 2:46 provocative use that i know we are all 2:49 excited to explore with mr. dent Harry 2:51 welcome to the program a nice to be here 2:53 Chris 2:54 well thanks not hearing before we dive 2:55 into current events and your predictions 2:58 I would love for you to tell our 2:59 listeners about your methodology so they 3:01 understand the basis for your views and 3:03 predictions 3:05 what's your framework well you know 3:07 first what I do Chris I don't study 3:09 government policies because government's 3:11 react to what the real economy does in 3:14 the real economy eighty percent of it to 3:16 be exact is driven by consumers and 3:18 businesses and that's mostly consumer 3:20 spending so I definitely i look at the 3:22 predictable things people do as they age 3:25 and I look at things that impact 3:27 consumer spending and business growth 3:29 everything from the aging of the 3:31 population and people get you know it's 3:33 been more money and it there mid mid to 3:35 late forties get more productive his 3:38 workers i look at technology cycles and 3:40 when technologies come together most 3:42 favorably for business and productivity 3:45 of workers and and these things are 3:49 crystal clear and they're very easy to 3:51 forecast what I tell people against what 3:54 economist say the long term is easy to 3:57 forecast and see it's the short term it 4:00 can be incredibly difficult because more 4:03 and more cycles come in as you get more 4:04 short-term more and more political 4:06 factors i mean i mean just imagine how 4:09 hard it would have been an even the 4:11 smartest money I track didn't get this 4:13 one to predict the Donald Trump number 4:15 one would win against clear polls that 4:18 said Hillary had it in the bag eighty 4:20 percent chance of winning and then if he 4:22 did win by surprise would go against all 4:25 the pundits saying oh my gosh 4:27 he's going to create so much uncertainty 4:28 the markets are going to crash or go 4:30 down the opposite happened that that's 4:33 how difficult the short term can be to 4:35 predict what the long-term yes I could 4:38 see that Japan's baby boom generation 4:40 was peeking decades ahead of the rest of 4:43 the world because it was born my 4:45 primarily at peak just before and after 4:48 World War two art and in the japan was 4:50 going to crash in the nineties when the 4:52 rest of the world's baby boomers where 4:54 they're strongest spending stages in the 4:56 United States and Europe and other 4:59 countries and and you know we could see 5:02 that housing was gonna peek ahead of the 5:05 economy because housing spending peaks 5:07 ahead of peak spending and so i 5:09 summarize the most important indicators 5:12 i have I got into a tease 5:14 I is the first one was suspending way 5:16 it's simply a 46-year lag on the birth 5:20 index which I adjust for immigrants 5:23 legal and illegal that are here today 5:24 and when they were born on average and 5:27 and 46 years when the average family 5:31 spends the most money in their life and 5:33 then we get yearly updates from the 5:36 government and the Consumer Expenditure 5:37 survey on not only total spending and by 5:41 age but from cradle turn to nursing 5:44 homes 5:45 you know what i can tell you when potato 5:46 chips peak that's age 42 when cruise 5:50 ship travel piece that's age 70 nursing 5:53 homes are going to be the hottest thing 5:54 for the next three decades we've ever 5:56 seen because the baby boomers are just 5:59 about to start entering that last thing 6:01 that peeks at age 84 and largely for 6:04 women so we look at demographics but i 6:07 also look at geo political cycles on 6:10 time by the way the demographics which 6:12 we peeped predicted way back in the late 6:14 eighties when Japan was declining we're 6:16 predicting that we said hey the us baby 6:18 boomers not going to peak until 2007 and 6:21 then our economy will weaken as it did 6:24 on that 46-year leg in 2008 we've been 6:27 living off of QE ever since but there 6:30 was a cycle that I had to kind of come 6:32 up with because the second lumen bubble 6:35 from 2002 2007 which we predicted but I 6:39 i thought it would be much stronger 6:40 or might look much like the first bubble 6:42 from 95 to 2,000 I had to go back and 6:46 dig and find out why I found a 6:47 geopolitical cycle that it's positive 6:50 every 17 18 years you know 6:53 kumbaya in the world and then it's 6:55 negative well that cycle hit in 2001 for 6:58 obvious reasons 911 and has been 7:00 terrible ever since that cycle doesn't 7:03 bottom until around 2020 and then things 7:07 get more favorable again i've also track 7:09 a technology cycle i do you just look 7:12 back I mean this is one of the most 7:14 clock light every 45 years you know the 7:17 steam engine came and then peak and its 7:20 impact in factories and then steamship 7:22 speak on 1875 and then railroads peak in 7:26 1920 and automobiles saturation and 7:29 super highways and 1965 and now recently 7:32 the internet we've all got the internet 7:34 we've all got google email broadband all 7:37 these things and smartphones and stuff 7:39 and now innovations down to social media 7:42 and to me facebook is great but it but 7:44 it's entertainment dancing cats and dogs 7:47 it's not not going to triple the 7:49 productivity my research business like 7:51 Google and email did and then finally 7:53 there's a roughly ten year boom-bust 7:56 cycle which I have a secret way of 7:58 forecasting which nobody's aware of our 8:01 and and here's the point on Chris all 8:06 four of these cycles point down now 11 8:10 at the next is Pete in the last several 8:12 years all four point down into early 8:15 2020 or so that's only happened in the 8:18 early to mid seventies when we had were 8:20 stock crashes back then and an OPEC 8:23 immuno cartels and always thought the 8:25 worst crisis since the 1930s and of 8:28 course in the early thirties we had this 8:30 same complete figuration of all four of 8:33 these fundamental cycles that taken me 8:35 30 years to hone and say decent for that 8:38 matter 8:39 another problem economist chris is very 8:41 simple 8:42 they look at so many indicators and 8:44 short-term stuff that they can't see the 8:46 forest for the trees that's why they 8:47 missed these long-term trends that are 8:49 so predictable so the next three years 8:52 is likely to be very very light 8:54 really be the worst we see in our 8:57 lifetimes it will be more like the early 8:59 nineteen thirties and and when stock 9:02 shit this sort of debt bubble and 9:03 financial asset bubbles crashes which 9:06 they only do once in a lifetime like the 9:08 early 1930s stocks are going to be down 9:11 seventy eighty ninety percent that 9:12 should be expected in this stage of the 9:15 cycle after such a bubble so I've gone 9:18 from being the most bullish economist in 9:21 the eighties and nineties to now one of 9:23 the most bearish because what goes up 9:24 goes down and that's what cycles do in 9:28 in at heart I'm of cycle guy and 9:31 demographics just happens to be the most 9:33 important cycle in this modern era sense 9:37 and only sense we've had a middle class 9:40 format that the only really since world 9:42 war two has the everyday person mattered 9:46 so much because they have fifty sixty 9:48 thousand incomes and in can buy homes 9:51 over 30 years and borrow a lot of money 9:53 a distant this was not the case before 9:56 the Great Depression and World War two 9:58 so that's a brief summary of my 10:01 fundamentals and why i am telling people 10:05 this is not the time to believe in this 10:07 Trump rally and I'll go into that i'll 10:09 show you what that cannot last 10:12 and he cannot create four percent growth 10:13 and people should be getting real safe 10:16 especially for the next three years now 10:18 after that and the point of this book 10:19 new books available i think it's going 10:22 to be one opportunity at the next to buy 10:24 stocks or emerging market stocks or 10:26 commodities or gold or real estate and 10:29 we also go into which areas are going to 10:31 be favored by demographics and our 10:33 cycles but there is going to be you're 10:36 never going to see prices this low if 10:39 you protect your capital now and 10:41 converted to cash or safe long-term 10:44 high-quality bonds then you are going to 10:47 be able to take advantage of the Civil 10:48 lifetime if you don't you're going to 10:50 see your financial assets wiped out a 10:54 good bit more than they were in two 10:55 thousand eight and nine and the markets 10:57 aren't going to come running back to new 10:59 highs next time now hear water 11:02 prerogative and very interesting 11:03 information in there 11:05 let me start here with this then because 11:06 I think we can build off this nicely a 11:09 very open question for myself my 11:12 listeners all over the world as well 11:14 obviously is is this going to be 11:15 inflation or is this deflation you're 11:17 talking deflation that's what I'm 11:19 hearing a fallen in the financial asset 11:21 prices so when I have somebody like John 11:23 husband on or grant williams or other 11:25 astute fed observers axel merk people 11:27 like that who know the Fed the central 11:29 bank's well they say they committed some 11:31 of the most egregious policy blunders 11:33 ever because they tried to do things 11:34 like prevent the very cycle you're 11:37 talking about at least the business 11:38 cycle and assets cycles they want to see 11:40 if they can smooth those out prevent 11:42 them from going bust all of that and and 11:45 at this point when we try and resolve 11:47 the inflation vs deflation question 11:49 there are some who say that when this 11:51 next sort of deflationary wave comes the 11:53 central banks will they know what to do 11:56 they're just going to keep printing 11:58 you're saying they're going to lose that 12:00 battle don't have that right yes it and 12:04 i'll tell you why they've already 12:05 printed 13 trillion dollars globally and 12:08 of course Japan and Europe are still 12:10 going at it rapid rates especially Japan 12:13 and guess what we've gotten out of that 12:15 0212 2% at best inflation and all the 12:19 developed countries that are printing 12:21 all this money it's because this money 12:22 is being printed to stop and and Kane 12:27 deflation because deflation means dead 12:29 is deleveraging banks are failing 12:31 businesses are failing prices are going 12:33 down that squeezes margin it's the gets 12:36 that's what happened in the Great 12:37 Depression deflation is a wrecking ball 12:40 now the biggest problem here as you're 12:43 saying these other experts were 12:44 correctly saying this is terrible policy 12:47 to try to smooth out these cycles and 12:50 the economy the economy grows through 12:53 the dynamics of opposite free market 12:55 capitalism is the opposite of democracy 12:58 just like men and women are opposites 13:00 and you know positive and negative poles 13:03 on a battery that's how you create 13:04 energy and dynamic growth inflation and 13:08 deflation are part of this cycle booms 13:10 and busts third part of these cycles in 13:13 the bust in an inflationary and 13:15 deflationary x is when we get the 13:18 greatest enemy 13:18 nations that then move mainstream with 13:21 the next demographic boom 13:23 so this dynamic is necessary and by 13:25 stopping this dynamic and just creating 13:28 a coma economy where Japan has been 13:30 growing 0% now for 26 years and the US 13:34 has been growing it two percent now for 13:37 eight years and that's not going to even 13:40 last with demographics getting worth you 13:42 just basically freeze innovation you 13:44 kill the Golden Goose i call it so this 13:46 is this is terrible policy but also they 13:49 are fighting such persistent long-term 13:52 downward demographic and even 13:54 technological innovation trends and all 13:57 this sort of stopped 13:58 I mean retirement here's what happens in 14:00 an economy for the first time in history 14:02 where you have the baby boom generation 14:04 in most developed countries larger than 14:08 the millennial generation following them 14:10 as we move forward you get to the point 14:12 where there's more baby boomers retiring 14:14 the Millennials entering the workforce 14:16 all the workforce is not growing which 14:19 it's not it's negative for the next 14:21 several years then it's just above 14:22 fairly positive for decades to come how 14:25 do you grow four percent with that 14:27 productivity has been going down ever 14:29 since the baby boomers started to 14:31 retiring in the very late nineteen 14:33 nineties and it's gonna get it's gone 14:35 from sixty-seven percent now 62 and a 14:38 half percent and by the time they fully 14:40 retired by 2024 it's going to be fifty 14:43 eight percent by projector we're going 14:45 to lose another four and a half million 14:46 of our workforce how do you grow at four 14:49 percent with a declining workforce for 14:51 decades to come 14:52 how do you grow it it near zero 14:55 productivity were the lowest 14:56 productivity rates since the Bob Hope 14:58 generation was retiring in mass in the 15:00 early eighties them down of their cycle 15:03 and it's going to get worse so so this 15:06 Trump think he's gonna like just shift 15:08 around the pie and in ship taxes from 15:10 the government to the consumer and 15:12 businesses you know in and cut off some 15:15 regulations and things like that built 15:17 an infrastructure this is not going to 15:19 happen you're not going to create four 15:21 percent growth its demographically 15:23 impossible Japan has been stimulating 15:25 much longer than us at three times the 15:28 rate of quantitative easing in the last 15:30 several years and they're still 15:32 long-term growing 0 with 0 inflation and 15:36 0 productivity and they would have had 15:38 deeply shin and bank failures if they 15:41 had not printed so much money for the 15:43 money being printed is to keep the banks 15:45 from falling over like the Great 15:47 Depression but the price of that you go 15:49 into a coma economy like Japan you never 15:52 go from what I call the winter 15:53 deleveraging deflationary season back to 15:56 the next spring mild inflation boom as 15:59 we get going from the 30 to 40 50 60 so 16:02 this is horrible policy I if we don't 16:05 let this crisis happened and let some 16:07 banks fail and some companies fail and 16:08 gone to this we'd be over the worst by 16:11 now the great depression the worst of it 16:13 was over in three years and then we did 16:16 nothing but grow for decades after that 16:19 because we lifted a lot of debt offer 16:21 consumers and businesses when banks fail 16:23 it's because they have bad loans they 16:25 have to write them down or write them 16:27 off and then that that's why they go 16:29 under and then the stronger bank take 16:31 over their assets and you reorganize the 16:33 banking system but you come out of it 16:34 with far less debt japan now has more 16:38 depth than ever we have more depth than 16:39 ever and and our deficit our government 16:42 deficit which is the smallest part of 16:44 our death private debts much larger is 16:46 is doubling every eight years has 16:49 anybody noticed this 5 to 10 trillion 16:51 under Bush 10 to 20 under Obama it's 16:54 gonna be 20 to 40 over the next two 16:56 administrations and I don't think it's 16:58 gonna be Donald Trump I said when he got 16:59 elected I i would not be surprised if he 17:02 doesn't last the first year either 17:04 because he does something so stupid that 17:08 he kind of gets pushed out or in peace 17:10 or he gets shocked if anybody's going to 17:12 get shot people who shake up things and 17:14 he's shaking up things more than anybody 17:15 in history the most rapid rate people 17:18 who shake up things like Reagan like 17:20 Kennedy like Lincoln often get shot 17:25 well now there's a this decision we can 17:29 feel the pressure is building right so 17:30 you said we got nothing for all of our 17:32 queue is not quite right we got the 17:33 world not weekend to four percent growth 17:36 we wouldn't had in week we did stop a 17:39 banking system collapse like the 30 2008 17:42 look just like 93 no I i get Republicans 17:45 say that all 17:45 find me Chris you know Terry this 17:47 quantitative easing did nothing oh no it 17:50 it did a lot the problem is there's a 17:52 big price for it kills the whole free 17:54 market system and and and kills free 17:57 markets in general they did the central 18:00 banks have taken over the bond markets 18:02 and push down long-term risk free rate 18:05 and everything else real estate bonds on 18:09 stocks are heavily impacted by the 18:12 sub-zero rates hope not just impacted 18:16 but i'll give you the other thing that I 18:17 was heading towards is that it also gave 18:20 us the largest wealth gap in all of 18:22 history you know last year 62 people had 18:25 as much well it's half the world this 18:27 year that number is eight right 18:29 this breathe sort of social injustice 18:31 and we're primates for humans like we 18:33 hate unfairness this is deeply unfair 18:35 that the central banks are printing out 18:37 of thin air and its really 18:38 preferentially showing up in a very 18:39 small set of pocket book that's not 18:42 really good for the social experiments 18:43 we have a lot of tensions around all of 18:46 this but it lets talk about what hasn't 18:47 done it hasn't led to a real resurgence 18:50 in corporate R&D and the next wave of 18:52 investments that are going to do great 18:54 things for growth or future economy or 18:56 productivity we've got you know 18:58 financial engineering we've got 18:59 speculation we've got prop trading we 19:01 got listen Rome went down this path you 19:03 debase your current so you just printed 19:05 out of thin air out here you know you 19:06 know make your coins lesser and lesser 19:08 actual metal content and people catch on 19:12 we're smart we go hey if that's the game 19:14 i'll do this all out why would i expend 19:16 effort trying to create real new valued 19:19 products and services it's risky and 19:21 it's hard work i'll just go over here 19:22 into this a highly speculative arena 19:24 pool knowing that the central bank has 19:26 got my back 19:27 they're going to bail me out if I really 19:28 screw up here and make bad enough that's 19:30 right i just thought why not just like 19:32 not slip ons and speculated tech stocks 19:35 and I know exactly it's just something I 19:38 think economy its artificial it's 19:40 growing for the wrong reasons and all it 19:43 has created and people keep saying all 19:45 the feds going to hit massive inflation 19:47 at some point no they're not the problem 19:49 with the feds policies what's going to 19:51 kill them and defeat this is all they've 19:53 done is create even greater bubbles in 19:56 debt and in financial asks that's real 19:59 state and stocks and everything then we 20:00 had in 2007 and they're going to burst 20:03 again bubbles only birth and they don't 20:05 even need something big to happen real 20:08 estate started going down before the 20:10 economy went down before the subprime 20:12 crisis got nasty because it got too 20:15 expensive and baby boomers were running 20:18 out of their home buying cycle so 20:21 bumbles always burst and so that's the 20:24 danger here is what's going to trigger 20:26 this next bubble I mean a banking crisis 20:29 is already brewing big-time worse than 20:31 greece in southern Europe and Italy 20:33 Germany has worse demographics than the 20:36 Japanese had going in the nineteen 20:38 nineties in the decade ahead and 20:40 everybody thinks Germany's going to be 20:42 the strongest country in Europe that 20:44 holds it together and Deutsche Bank is 20:46 going down you know like a flaming plane 20:48 already so that china's got bubbles in 20:52 real estate that are so extreme they're 20:54 gonna have to burst in the next few 20:56 years and when that happens you're going 20:58 to trigger a tsunami around the world in 21:01 real estate crashes so so this thing is 21:03 not gonna last much longer and these 21:06 bubbles are going to burst and that's 21:07 the price we're gonna pay for this free 21:10 money something for nothing economy were 21:13 like you say people get rid of the rich 21:15 get extremely Richard this does favor 21:18 and it's not the top 1% I look at it the 21:21 top pointone percentage that runaway may 21:24 have as much wealth as the rest of the 21:26 one percent put together these are the 21:29 people making the most money off of 21:31 three money because they can leverage 21:33 and they have the money to invest in 21:35 these financial assets and and they're 21:38 the ones that benefit while homer 21:40 simpson has very little in the markets 21:42 and only their home and of course that 21:44 home got killed in in the last great 21:47 recession and it'll get killed worse 21:49 again so you're right this is income 21:51 inequality off-the-charts that's exactly 21:54 what the economy looked like in 1929 21:56 before the Great Depression not just the 21:59 peak of a generation spending not just 22:01 the debt bubble not just financial asset 22:03 bubbles but we had the same one percent 22:07 of people controlling fifty percent of 22:08 the wealth are just like we have now and 22:11 it's kitty getting even 22:12 so yeah this is not sustainable period 22:15 and when it crashes it's going to be 22:17 worse than ever 22:18 I mean all they've done is create a 22:20 bigger bubble we've added fifty seven 22:23 trillion more debt around the world you 22:26 know to the hundred and fifty trillion 22:27 we had at the top of the last bubble and 22:30 most of this in the emerging world that 22:32 which is the least stable and is getting 22:34 crushed by crashing commodities prices 22:38 I mean what we got the worst downturn 22:40 unconvinced next three years worst 22:42 financial crisis in bubble burst of our 22:45 lifetimes and when we will not see 22:48 something that's bad against oh hey 22:50 stocks are way over value got this very 22:53 irrational trump rally which I call the 22:55 final blow off phase i don't think it 22:58 lasts past July but i do think it goes 23:00 higher i think we're going to see dr. at 23:02 least ten percent higher from here 23:04 before the economy figures out that we 23:07 can't grow at four percent no matter 23:09 what does crazy person does annie is a 23:11 crazy person he may be smart a lot of 23:13 ways but he is crazy any psychologist 23:15 would mark him off on a few things right 23:18 away arm so when adverse people going to 23:22 be surprised and in one of the things I 23:24 born people most crisp yet people say 23:26 well guys I don't want to get out of 23:28 this bubble bee 23:29 yeah maybe it's a bubble but it keeps 23:30 going up here's the problem with bubbles 23:33 they're going to go down typically 23:34 eighty percent 7290 wherein especially 23:38 in stocks and commodities but half of 23:40 that crash and most of bubbles in 23:41 history has come in the first two to 23:44 three months when the markets finally 23:46 get it and the smart money runs like 23:48 crazy and the dumb money and most people 23:50 are in upholding stocks to go down forty 23:52 to forty-five percent in two to three 23:54 months this happen in 29 crashed it 23:57 happens in the nikkei crash and in 1990 24:01 it happened in the tech rec on in early 24:04 two thousand and it happened just last 24:07 year you can see this just last year 24:09 China's second stock bubble burst 24:13 forty-five percent in the first three 24:15 months in late 2015 and you had everyday 24:17 household lost everything they were 24:20 getting money on margin stuff the 24:22 government encouraged this stupidly to 24:24 try to offset 24:25 real estate slow down and then people 24:27 just got wiped out so that's the danger 24:29 if you hold out right now I think this 24:32 Trump rally has enough behind it that 24:35 people are probably okay into the summer 24:37 but i tell you it we see this market 24:39 keep going up into the summer and we we 24:41 start approaching that classic crash 24:44 season from late july too late October 24:46 i'm going to tell people you've got to 24:48 get out you just got to be safe if you 24:51 miss another five percent and hey you 24:53 could have gotten slammed you know forty 24:56 percent in three months so better to do 24:58 that now you that at the heart of all of 25:02 this of course so so you've got these 25:03 big trends you name these four big 25:05 trends and they have a very good both 25:08 explanatory and predictive power and 25:10 makes sense right we can say well what 25:11 is an economy its wealth people buying 25:13 and consistently stuff so maybe we 25:15 should track the people i get it now 25:17 what you talked about those with the 25:18 debt the federal debt United States 25:20 doubling every eight years using my my 25:23 handy-dandy rule of 72 that's a 25:25 9-percent compounded annual rate of 25:28 growth so nine percent alright and 25:30 verses that reverses gdp exactly it's 25:33 been growing anywhere with 2% recently 25:35 in 33 and a person event I mean wewe and 25:38 that's one starts statistically quote 25:40 from 1983 2008 in the baby boom debt 25:44 grew at 2.6 times the rate of gdp any 25:48 economist that does not see that turning 25:50 into a debt crisis down the road should 25:52 not be an economist and should be barred 25:55 from practicing the most retarded and 25:57 say hold this 25:58 ok it's not okay well it's not in so you 26:02 know that the Cunard I have to bat 26:04 around all the time somebody say well so 26:06 it lets you japan it's the ultimate 26:07 Petrie to show this why that country 26:09 hasn't gone down in flames right now I 26:11 don't understand because the total 26:13 amount of debt that they're carrying 26:14 right now per household is about a 26:16 million dollars per household write its 26:19 result two charts and that's what I'm 26:20 looking at the total debt of the country 26:22 people over Chris they owe it to 26:24 themselves 26:25 what do you say to that one Harry well 26:28 first of all the greatest amount of debt 26:30 in our economy all economies developed 26:33 world is private debt 3 23 times 26:36 typically government debt as much as 26:39 four times in the boom and and that is 26:41 owed to banks and then people like that 26:44 and they go under or you go under when 26:47 you can't pay it or you lose your house 26:49 or you buy stocks on margin and you lose 26:52 everything so it's not rude and 26:55 governors themselves ok but you know a 26:57 lot of his death is supposed to be used 27:00 I mean our government finance be used to 27:03 pay us social security and health care 27:05 which is underfunded by guest get this 27:08 about 70 trillion dollars just like a 27:11 lot of pension fans fun plans have to 27:14 report the amount of pensions or or 27:17 healthcare benefits they promised their 27:19 workers that has not been funded in an 27:22 investment in a conservative investment 27:24 plan to meet those the government 70 27:26 trillion unfunded so they get in in in 27:30 in a debt crisis or they can't grow 27:32 their debt further because nobody wants 27:34 to buy their bonds anymore because their 27:35 debt ratios are hot 27:36 how are they how are they going to pay 27:39 our benefits when they're not gonna be 27:40 able to pay them despite the debt crisis 27:42 but that only makes it worse so it's it 27:44 served to say oh we owe it to ourselves 27:48 just let me know studies show that when 27:50 government debt gets above ninety two 27:52 hundred percent it starts to slow gdp 27:55 growth it's a burden on the economy it's 27:57 the same thing when household debt you 28:00 know it gets to you know a hundred 28:02 percent or more of gdp it slows their 28:06 spending because they're paying more and 28:08 more interest in the government's paying 28:09 more and more interest than right now it 28:12 is is we talked about earlier by 28:14 suppressing the artificially pushing 28:17 their bond rage down 20 short term and 28:21 more like two percent long-term instead 28:23 of typically five to six percent with 28:25 the inflation rate so that they're 28:26 cheating they're able to to handle this 28:31 debt burden short-term because they push 28:33 they buy their own bonds and push race 28:35 down 28:35 well that's cheating and that's not 28:36 gonna laugh in a long-term we're going 28:38 to go back to you know treasury bonds 28:41 being more like five to six percent and 28:44 then they did japan would be bankrupt 28:46 overnight their entire budget would be 28:48 interest if we just went back to normal 28:51 you know 28:53 weight percent inflation in five to six 28:55 percent long-term bonds they be bankrupt 28:57 overnight and and we would have interest 29:00 would start to consume a huge portion of 29:03 our government budget so so no this this 29:07 is not sustainable and and it's just 29:09 another ridiculous bubble talk when you 29:11 get in bubbles 29:12 I'll tell you why people are stupid 29:14 that's what these books about Chris 29:16 people never see bubbles because they 29:18 don't want to they're in denial they're 29:20 getting something for nothing 29:21 their house is going up at fifteen 29:23 percent a year instead of the normal 29:25 three percent a year with inflation 29:27 stocks are going up at twenty percent 29:29 higher year instead of the normal seven 29:31 percent or something like that and in 29:33 and in their mortgages costing them four 29:36 percent instead of six to seven percent 29:38 in the car my car loans and leases are 29:40 two percent now they used to be at six 29:43 percent we're getting a free lunch 29:45 people love that it makes them feel good 29:47 make sure you feel high when somebody 29:50 like me says sorry folks we're in a 29:52 death bubble in a financial asset bubble 29:55 and every one of these that looks like 29:57 this in history has busted and it busted 29:59 horribly wanted to have people got wiped 30:02 out people want to shoot me they want to 30:04 shoot the messenger 30:05 they don't want to hear at CNBC Kate's 30:08 me some people in fox business like me 30:10 because they see they understand the 30:14 debt is not good like this but most 30:17 people just don't want to hear it now is 30:20 you know let's let's section the people 30:22 out a little bit there was this really 30:23 interesting article just came out the 30:24 most recent issue of the new yorker 30:26 where the very wealthy including tech 30:29 mogul who really made it like the 30:30 startup founder co founder of reddit but 30:33 as well as many hedge fund managers 30:35 private-equity people they're very 30:38 wealthy people they've obviously got 30:39 access very good information and they're 30:41 they're buying bunkers in New Zealand so 30:44 it here's the thing i run into here yet 30:46 is that the retail level like that the 30:48 average person on the street very hard 30:50 to communicate some of the stuff to 30:51 definitely shooting the messenger and 30:53 people who really don't want to believe 30:54 otherwise but the people who are the 30:56 most worried right now are the people 30:58 who have the most experience in the 30:59 financial markets 31:00 I mean you know I talked with guys and 31:02 gals with decades of experience you know 31:03 running headphones for 30 years and they 31:05 look at all of this 31:06 is a dis is a mess and it worries them 31:09 because they're worried that when this 31:11 next turn comes it's not going to be 31:13 like your grandpa has turned where 31:14 humans and little red orange and red 31:16 coats start trading pieces of paper and 31:18 things get a little out of hand these 31:19 are computers making decisions at 31:22 Lightspeed operating in microseconds 31:25 saying uh we're out of this market 31:27 potentially so they're worried about 31:28 these flash crashes that we see in small 31:31 markets really somehow you know 31:33 perpetuating across the larger market 31:35 structure that is I think we've had an 31:37 SEC asleep at the wheel we I believe 31:39 that you know are using cell arnoc and 31:42 another guy's is demonstrating that 31:44 these are broken markets in many 31:46 respects because we don't really have 31:48 the same governing structures on them 31:50 that we used to it it's uh it's a little 31:53 bit worrisome and maybe you've seen this 31:55 as well you know when you see something 31:57 like the dollar or the pound for us 31:59 treasuries move by whole percentage 32:01 points in a matter of minutes you know 32:03 6789 Sigma move shouldn't happen once 32:06 every ten million to a billion year kind 32:08 of stuff it just speaks to me that this 32:11 is a reason to be edgy and the edgy as 32:13 people I know are the ones who are the 32:15 most sophisticated in these markets and 32:17 I don't know that most people have 32:18 really connected those dots yet 32:22 yeah that's that that's what i call the 32:23 smart money and and and that's what I 32:26 track i look at the commitment of 32:28 traders got small percentage of traders 32:30 who with the commercial headers always 32:33 tend to be on the right side of the 32:34 market at a major top there hedged 32:37 bearish and a major bottom their heads 32:40 bullish and that's the people in and 32:42 these people are are you know are the 32:45 people who understand this and are 32:47 saying oh my god this thing's gotta go 32:49 down there the people who understand the 32:51 higher market goes the more vulnerable 32:53 it is for most investors the moment the 32:56 longer they see real estate or stocks go 32:59 up the more confident they get that they 33:01 won't fall and that's different that's 33:04 that's a total misunderstanding of 33:06 history and investing so you're right 33:09 only a small percentage of people get 33:11 this and it's the same people i talked 33:13 to I i just i'm just not going to be a 33:17 mainstream forecaster at this point 33:19 because I'm 33:20 everybody's hoping this works out and 33:22 everybody's much as people no trumps got 33:25 the impulse control of a grease fire and 33:27 he's kind of a crazy person they're like 33:29 well but we hope he does some stuff and 33:32 turns it takes us back to four percent 33:33 they're hoping anybody that looks at the 33:36 fundamentals anybody that looks at 33:38 cycles debt cycles financial assets 33:40 cycle anybody that looks at bubble this 33:42 whole book has so many charts showing 33:45 that all these bubbles look alike they 33:47 look like the male orgasm chart from my 33:50 own masters and Johnson's back in the 33:52 late fifties and that's exactly what 33:54 they are they're like a financial orgasm 33:56 and orgasms can only go so far till it 33:59 gets too intense and then when they end 34:01 they end rapidly and that's what happens 34:05 with bubbles so I go out of my way to 34:06 say look everybody politicians are 34:09 telling you that's not a bubble goldman 34:10 sachs is saying it's not a bubble 34:12 economist are saying it's not a bubble 34:14 CNBC saying it's not a bubble don't 34:17 listen to these people this looks like a 34:19 bubble quacks like a bobble walks like a 34:21 bubble this is a bubble in bubbles only 34:24 do one thing they don't have soft 34:26 landing they burst violently in the 34:28 typical stock bubble as i said earlier 34:30 is eighty percent that's how much cheap 34:32 and ultimately went down in the Great 34:35 Depression of eighty-nine percent for 34:36 the US stock market we were kinda like 34:38 the China that up-and-coming coming most 34:41 leverage country back then so China 34:43 probably will be ninety percent us will 34:46 probably eighty percent and and that's 34:48 not something you want to sit through 34:50 because after that bubble burst in the 34:52 early thirties stocks took 24 years to 34:55 get back to those 1929 highs you'll be 34:59 dead as a retiree if you wait for stud 35:01 you listen to your stockbroker and say 35:03 well he'll say stocks Goldberg no always 35:06 come back and we have you diversified I 35:08 also ask investors to look at your new 35:10 2008 crash portfolio 35:12 how did diversification work for you 35:14 there when real estate went down 35:16 commodities went down gold and silver 35:18 included every stock market in the world 35:20 emerging markets developed market small 35:23 cats large jobs all went down 35:26 how did that diversification work for 35:28 you it didn't 35:29 well Harry I got to get to the heart of 35:31 the sense i'm going to assume that 35:33 that the safest investment here in your 35:36 view is cash that I'm getting not 35:38 japanese yen either but US dollars is 35:40 that is that fair 35:42 Jack cash and US dollars because the US 35:45 dollar versus other currencies was the 35:47 only one that really rallied and then 35:49 when 2008 meltdown happened it went up 35:51 twenty-seven percent in three or four 35:53 months not because we have good monetary 35:56 policies where the best house in a bad 35:58 neighborhood demographically and we have 36:01 less quantitative easing cumulative than 36:04 Europe and way way less than Japan so 36:07 the WF & dollars but also the highest 36:10 quality bonds in the Great Depression 36:12 for that entire decade where stocks and 36:16 real estate and commodities and 36:17 everything else got decimated the the 36:20 long-term treasury bonds and triple-a 36:22 corporate bonds the highest quality 36:24 long-term bonds roughly doubled in value 36:27 which include their dividends and they 36:30 take higher dividends or there are now 36:33 with with a bounce and heels are paying 36:35 a higher higher dividends and stock and 36:37 I think these years could bounce a 36:38 little farther later this year so yeah 36:41 it's the safest assets highest-quality 36:43 bonds you can bet on the US dollar going 36:46 up at least in the early stage of the 36:47 crisis new ups and ETF attracts that the 36:50 US dollars at a hundred it's forty-five 36:53 percent higher than when the great 36:55 recession started in january 2008 and it 36:57 bottom and i think it's going to at 36:59 least a hundred twenty so US dollar US 37:02 Dollar Index or dollar bullish funds 37:04 highest-quality US government and in 37:08 triple-a corporate bonds and just good 37:10 old cast nothing wrong with having 37:12 liquid cash that everytime assets go 37:15 down you can buy more of them and you've 37:17 got the cast to do it because don't 37:18 think anybody's going to lend you money 37:20 to buy stocks are real estate at the 37:22 bottom of this next crisis you gotta 37:24 have cash or or high quality stuff and 37:27 you can sell those bonds any day and 37:29 guess and in these bonds not only have 37:31 could get three to three-and-a-half 37:33 percent yield on something safe they 37:36 appreciate when deflation brings those 37:38 yields back down the bonds appreciated 37:41 from 1931 in 1941 a 10-year bull market 37:45 after stocks and everything crashed so 37:47 so the bonds that what bonds of the one 37:50 bubble that are getting a setback now 37:52 but the one bubble that will be the last 37:54 burst many years from now i agree with 37:57 that now this brings me to my final 37:58 question which is really about gold and 38:00 I'm not gold and silver are two separate 38:02 words to me I don't lump them together 38:03 gold the monetary asset to me and that's 38:06 primarily why i like it and so here's 38:07 the question as we get into this 38:10 deflationary aspect which I agree with 38:12 you feel like like the end stage to all 38:13 of this 38:14 I no longer trust of the statements of 38:18 any of the major commercial banks i 38:20 think there's going to be an enormous 38:21 banking crisis with that so when you say 38:23 cash if that means cash in the bank i 38:25 think we have to understand which bank 38:27 matters because not all are created 38:28 equal some of them are carrying 38:29 derivatives that nobody can understand 38:31 at this point and gold to me is that is 38:33 potentially a means of having a monetary 38:36 assets outside of a system that frankly 38:38 I've lost a lot of faith in if not all 38:41 of my trust especially with the baling 38:43 provisions and the sneaky war on cash 38:46 stuff courtesy of summers and rode off 38:47 and all those other casting of slimy 38:49 characters and whatnot but but it feels 38:51 to me like like people are being herded 38:53 into a banking system that is just like 38:55 the last corral you ever want to get 38:57 caught in right potentially so when you 38:59 say cash 39:00 what do you mean by that and second 39:01 halves gold into that story 39:03 okay first of all very good question you 39:06 have to have your cash for your safe 39:08 bonds or your dollar index or whatever 39:10 in a brokerage account whether it being 39:13 a bank or brokerage firm I i like to be 39:15 with online brokerage firms because 39:18 they're they're not banks that also lend 39:20 money against real estate and can can 39:22 get crippled and stuff but it if you 39:24 have it in the bank in a checking 39:26 account or savings account they do lend 39:28 that money out into these bubbles 39:30 especially in the real estate and when 39:32 they lose that money your money may not 39:34 be will not be there as it wasn't in in 39:36 early 30 so if you're in a brokerage 39:38 account they can't lend against that 39:40 even if it's in a bank 39:42 I'd rather have it i have my money you 39:44 know with schwab or or or somebody like 39:47 Scottrade because they're not in the 39:49 business of lending or investment 39:51 banking and all this sort of stuff are 39:54 so that's first thing second thing gold 39:57 Gold correlates with one thing long-term 39:59 and one thing only and that's inflation 40:02 also short term gold is an inflation 40:06 hedge that's why it was such a great 40:07 investment in what I call the summer 40:10 season of high inflation and recession 40:12 or stagflation that's a part of my 80 40:15 years cycled it works like a clock and 40:17 but it's not a deflation hedge gold 40:21 people don't get gold was a bigger 40:22 bubble and then the stock market gold 40:24 went up eight times in 10 years between 40:27 2001 and 2011 we told people to get out 40:31 of silver and gold and silver retested 40:34 it's 1984 bubble hi previous bubble high 40:37 and we said this was like a good time to 40:39 get out gold when a little higher in to 40:41 intercept member but basically told 40:43 people get out this is a bubble bubbles 40:45 have to burst and these things followed 40:47 the commodity cycle which is a 30-year 40:49 clock gold did not provide that safe 40:53 haven i look back into late 2008 when 40:56 things really melted down and look like 40:58 we're going in a great depression and 41:00 major banks failing and General Motors 41:01 could have gone on there and AIG and all 41:04 this sort of start gold went down 41:06 33-percent silver went down fifty 41:10 percent they did not protect you 41:12 so I don't trust go for gold erases 41:16 bubble and I look in this book and 41:17 principles and bubbles is they they they 41:20 build up exponentially when they burst 41:22 burst and half a time typically took 41:25 them to built and they go back to where 41:27 the bubble started not the whole bull 41:29 market whatever that is when they 41:31 started to diverge from the fundamental 41:33 trends and go up more expedient enjoyed 41:35 gold has to go down to four hundred 41:37 dollars to race that bubble and it could 41:40 possibly get worse retest those 2001 41:43 lows around 250 i'm looking for gold to 41:46 hit seven hundred give or take in the 41:48 next year or so and i'm looking i'm not 41:50 gonna be interested in gold to it gets 41:52 at least the 400 and then i would love 41:54 it because the next commodity cycle can 41:56 be driven by emerging countries who are 41:58 horrible huge consumers are gold and 42:01 silver huge consumers of commodities as 42:03 a percentage of their income and the 42:05 biggest producers and exporters of 42:07 commodities so I think the next 42:08 commodity cycle is going to be a doozy 42:11 but commodities have already crashed and 42:13 won't turn around until at least 2020 42:15 and and then it goes at 400 bucks 42:18 tonight say you know what I'd buy this 42:20 and think you could go to 4,000 over the 42:22 next commodity cycle and that next 42:24 commodity cycle women peak until about 42:26 2038 2014 so I do not like gold 42:30 it's not a safe haven in a deflationary 42:33 environment it is the safe haven an 42:35 inflationary environment and of course 42:37 once this quantitative endless 42:40 quantitative easing breaks down all 42:42 these bubbles burst again and again real 42:44 question to to summarize their the 42:47 reason you get deflation in this winter 42:50 season is it when deputy leverages money 42:52 disappears loans are written off of that 42:54 money disappears when bubbles burst like 42:57 the dowel goes from 22,000 down to four 42:59 thousand eighty percent of people's 43:02 wealth disappears and doesn't come back 43:04 for a long time that creates less money 43:06 chasing the same goods and financial 43:08 assets and everything else and that 43:10 creates deflation and prices not 43:13 inflation and certainly very much 43:16 non-mainstream views and we have been 43:18 talking with harry reid and author of 43:20 the new book the sale of a lifetime it's 43:23 a chock full of just fascinating 43:25 thinking and of course somebody you 43:27 should be listening to an editor of the 43:29 free newsletter economy and markets 43:30 found that Harry dent dot-com Harry 43:33 anything else you need to tell people 43:35 about events or how they can follow you 43:36 more closely now I think the best thing 43:40 you're not free newsletter so that's 43:41 where you can get the notice i mean i 43:43 think we got you know limited months 43:45 maybe six months left in this market i 43:47 want by the middle of this year you to 43:49 be convinced to make some very hard 43:51 decisions because everybody else 43:53 including your stockbroker and your best 43:55 friend are going to turn the media and 43:57 everything is going to tell you 43:58 otherwise you need to make some hard 44:00 decisions and you're not going to do 44:01 that unless you're convinced so so yes 44:04 get the book and get on our free 44:06 newsletter we also have paid in his 44:07 letters if you want to get more depth 44:09 but but but you need to be convinced so 44:11 so get serious about this and and okay 44:14 this doesn't happen in the next couple 44:16 years and then I'm gonna quit my 44:17 profession and be a limo driver the gold 44:19 coast of Australia alright well you'll 44:21 be fighting the 44 fairs with me 44:24 at that point I'm so Harry thank you so 44:26 much for your time today 44:27 let's do this again sometime soon okay 44:29 thank you Chris













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